Read-only — Curated Demo
Curated Demo · Strategic · 2024 – 2028
AI Arms Race 2028
A near-future scenario tracing how compute, talent, capital, and export controls converge into a multipolar AI competition with strategic stakes.
Factions
US frontier labs
Model leaders
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind compete at the capability frontier.
Chinese state-aligned labs
Sovereign push
Domestic compute build-out and open weights as strategic counter.
Hyperscaler compute
Capex bottleneck
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta dominate training infrastructure.
EU & UK regulators
Standards setters
AI Act, model evals, deployment rules shape global norms.
Timeline
2024
Frontier model export controls expand
Weights and inference services restricted along geopolitical lines.
2025
Trillion-parameter agents go mainstream
Multi-step autonomous workflows enter enterprise.
2026
First sovereign AI clusters online
UAE, India, France stand up domestic frontier capacity.
2028
Capability parity contested
Gap between US and Chinese frontiers narrows to months.
Scenarios
What if open weights surpass closed frontier in 2026?
- ↳ Moats: Lab differentiation collapses to data + product.
- ↳ Safety: Misuse risk escalates faster than mitigation.
What if compute access is rationed by treaty?
- ↳ Race: Pace slows; smaller actors squeezed out.